UK, Norway and Poland to recover first, says C&W

Cushman & Wakefield says UK, Norway and Poland most likely to see early recovery followed by Denmark, Finland and the Czech Republic. Cushman & Wakefield makes the prediction in its bi-monthly Economic Pulse reports analysing business and commercial real estate interests and conditions in Asia, Europe and the Americas. The reports provide detailed observations and commentary on stabilisation trends that are beginning to emerge in various economies and include balanced views on the likelihood for recovery in each region.

The report says forward looking indicators are up across Europe amid a growing believe that the region is now passed the worst of the recession. But C&W warns that the evidence for stabilisation, let alone recovery, is 'at best mixed and still very thin' in some countries in the region. Western Europe, particularly the UK has seen more positive indicators than eastern markets, with manufacturing tending to show more improvement than other sectors of the economy.

However, there has also been some respite in retail sales, housing and even employment markets in certain countries, along with a modest shift in credit availability and a marked improvement in stock markets, suggesting greater faith in the future course of profits as well as increased tolerance for risk.

According to the report, risks to the recovery will remain and polarisation in the economic performance between European markets will accelerate in 2010, with the UK, Norway and Poland perhaps set to see early recovery, followed by Denmark, Finland, the Czech Republic and possibly Sweden.