Transaction volume set to reach EUR 50b in H1

The three largest global property advisers are forecasting a total European real estate transaction volume of between EUR 40-50 bn for the first half of the year, according to a survey conducted by PropertyEU. Cushman & Wakefield's forecast is at the top of the range at EUR 50 bn after the largest independent property adviser tracked EUR 22.4 bn of deals in the first quarter of the year.

Jones Lang LaSalle says volumes for the first half of 2010 will likely be EUR 25-30 bn higher than the EUR 26 bn recorded in the same last year. The estimate is based on the strong performance in the first three months when volumes reached EUR 20 bn. This marked an increase of 70% on the EUR 12 bn recorded in Q1 2009.

'We expect investment volumes to increase throughout the year despite continued tight supply of core product,' JLL said. 'The abundance of capital chasing real estate from an increasingly wide range of investor groups, combined with significant capital raising activity, clearly points to an upward trend in Europe. Our projections would be a 20 to 30% growth in volumes throughout 2010. Therefore we think that volumes in the first half of 2010 will be somewhere between EUR 45 and EUR 50 bn.'

Meanwhile CB Richard Ellis expects H1 transaction volume to reach about EUR 44 bn, compared to the EUR 26 bn recorded in the same period last year. 'Our figures showed a fraction over EUR 19 bn was transacted in Europe in Q1 and we expect that the market will continue to show steady recovery in 2010. Constraints in supply of prime real estate product appear to be the main factor determining the total value of transactions, making it very difficult to make firm predictions. However, we expect activity in Q2 to be around EUR 25 bn.'

PropertyEU's own Deal Analysis of H1 2010 is published in the June edition of the magazine.