'The sentiment at Expo Real this year is better than I expected,’ said Karim Rochdi, founder and managing partner of German owner-operated investment manager Aventos. 'That said, there's definitely a sense that we’re going through tougher times, even if the market is functioning.’
Rochdi’s firm, with offices in Berlin and Munich, has found significant success with logistics and light industrial in recent years, executing key deals and developments. He said he was ‘prioritising’ talking to tenants at this year’s event.
‘Cashflow is key, so finding good tenants for properties is our main focus,’ he confirmed. ‘It’s still hard to find good deals on the market due to the gap between sellers and buyers’ expectations. That leaves us concentrating on our existing assets and developments, and lining up future occupiers.’
For Rochdi, logistics continues to offer stable returns, and is finally generating ‘substantial rental growth’. ‘The rental picture in Germany was pretty flat for 20 years, but that has changed in the last 18 months, with German logistics seeing double-digit rental growth in some areas.’
Despite having plenty of meetings lined up, Rochdi has a negative view on certain aspects of the market. ‘It’s fair to say that the banks are making the entire situation worse, in some cases not being willing to do business at all. Those who will offer financing, won’t exceed 50%.
‘Most of the banks are very focused on their own internal issues, such as dealing with distress. But the conditions they are offering are even more pessimistic than the current market situation. That said, it probably isn’t the moment to take risks as far as they are concerned. No one wants to have to explain afterwards why they underwrote deals in 2023, with the benefit of hindsight.’
Rochdi also said that Euribor rates remained concerning. ‘A level of 4% is definitely challenging. Not knowing what the ECB will do next represents a threat for the markets.
‘I am hoping that by the end of next year, we will see interest rates going down a little, and I think 2024 will be the tipping point. Hopefully by the end of next year, we will see more deals than before, and will be able to say we are back to a “new normal” - a constant interest rate of between 2.5 to 3%.’
