Prime offices will continue to be the 'top pick' this year for core investors, in particular in Germany and the Southern European cities, according to a new report from Savills identifying six key trends in European real estate for 2019.
Offices in central business districts, residential, smart mixed-use, logistics, space as a service and the lack of prime assets are likely to be six key focus areas for investors.
Value-add investors could focus on transport and storage in the Central and Eastern European markets (Poland, Czech Republic, Romania) while redevelopments and new developments are the only routes to higher returns for opportunistic investors, according to the international real estate advisor.
'Average prime office yields are at a record low in Europe (3.65% in Q3 2018), however this product will remain a top pick in 2019, especially for risk adverse strategies,' said Eri Mitsostergiou, director, European Research, Savills. 'Similarly, average vacancy rates in Europe are at an all-time low of 5.9% with Berlin (1.4%), Hamburg (4.5%), Munich (2.5%) and Stockholm (3%) having almost no available office space.'
'As a result, we expect prime office rents in Europe to continue to rise, by 3.4% on average this year, with Milan possibly seeing prime office rents increase by 9.1%, Frankfurt, Barcelona, London’s West End, Dublin and Madrid by over 6%, Hamburg, Lisbon, Munich, Dusseldorf and Amsterdam by approximately 4% and Cologne, Warsaw and Copenhagen by around 2%,' Mitsostergiou added.
Sheds share
Savills notes that the share of logistics in European investment activity has already risen to almost 14% of the total and is expected to grow even more over the next 12 months. Prime industrial yields have dropped to an average of 5.3% across Europe, which is 148 bps below the 10 year average. The international real estate advisor anticipates that occupier and investor demand will remain strong, as the share of e-commerce continues to rise in all European countries.
'Competition between cities to attract international and national investors will accelerate this year,' said Mitsostergiou. 'Those cities where local governments and market players work together to develop new areas and redevelop existing space in order to create smart and liveable communities will stand out from the rest.
'At the same time, the model of the on-demand economy is causing disruption to the industry with occupiers expecting access to services, flexibility and personalisation. New types of space usage and management are emerging and investors are increasingly becoming operators in order to maximise the performance of their assets.'
Marcus Lemli, Savills head of investment for Europe and CEO for Savills in Germany, said: 'The market will remain competitive for investors in 2019. The lack of supply of prime assets will lead more investors towards niche sectors, secondary cities and development opportunities.'
