Outlook for Europe is improving, says C&W's Bastijn

The outlook for the European real estate market has improved over the summer, according to Jan-Willem Bastijn, head of capital markets EMEA at Cushman & Wakefield.

‘Investors appear to be more willing to take decisions. The outlook is better than it was a few months ago,’ he said in an interview with PropertyEU.

He added, however, that it was impossible to speak of a single outlook for the whole of Europe. ‘There isn’t one Europe. Different countries are moving at different speeds. Spain and the Netherlands are not at the bottom yet but in Sweden there never was a big fall. And in Germany it’s not hallelujah everywhere, especially in the secondary cities. But activity in Spain and the rest of southern Europe is ticking up again. There’s new capital waiting on the sidelines and core buyers willing to take on more risk.’

Before the summer, Bastijn took part in a road show to present the European real estate investment proposition to investors in the Asia Pacific region, particularly from China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Australia. Investors from the Middle East and Africa, in particular Angola, are also beefing up their presence in Europe, especially in Portugal, and Latin American investors, for example from Brazil, are lining up as well, Bastijn said.

He added that C&W was planning a further series of road shows in other parts of the world later this year. ‘It’s all about finding new money, preferably from investors who have not landed yet in Europe. The opportunities depend on the investor profile, but the market in Europe is settling down. CEE, particularly Poland, is picking up and France is holding up pretty well. The UK is also back on track. Our shopping centre team is having its best year ever with over £1.25 bn worth of transactions completed so far And in Germany we see opportunities on the sale side for shopping centre owners.’

As yields tighten further in London, Paris and Germany, a growing number of core investors are reconsidering what they should do and where they should go next, Bastijn added. ‘When you look at the rest of Europe, the issue is which cities do you choose, not countries. Germany is really the only country on the map when it comes to offering a diverse range of city options and for the big German cities you could argue that each is a region unto itself. Elsewhere most core investors will be looking now at gateway cities in other parts of Europe such as Warsaw or Madrid rather than second-tier cities.’ The residential markets in the Netherlands, but also southern Europe and Poland are becoming more active as well, he said. ‘Moscow is also on the radar,’ he added, ‘particularly the top end of the market.’

Commenting on the Dutch market, Bastijn conceded that the country faces some serious issues in terms of rising unemployment, office vacancies and a housing bubble. ‘The Dutch market is shifting into a difficult cycle of the market and it is not out of jail yet. But it’s not the Armageddon that some people are making it out to be. Of course, it is a relatively small market, but it does have a good image abroad and private equity houses are now lining up to seize upon opportunities as the market starts to bottom out. Liquidity will increase, and financing will improve at some point. We are moving towards less distressed levels.’