Markus Leininger's answer to the question posed by the title of the session 'Poland: Land of Opportunity?' is an unequivocal 'yes' for a variety of reasons. The head of corporate banking for Northern Europe and CEE at German financier Eurohypo cites Poland's stability during the financial crisis, coupled with its large domestic market and sound economic fundamentals as factors justifying the widespread optimism about the country.
Markus Leininger's answer to the question posed by the title of the session 'Poland: Land of Opportunity?' is an unequivocal 'yes' for a variety of reasons. The head of corporate banking for Northern Europe and CEE at German financier Eurohypo cites Poland's stability during the financial crisis, coupled with its large domestic market and sound economic fundamentals as factors justifying the widespread optimism about the country.
'No one expected Poland - which is still treated by rating agencies as an emerging market - to show such stability during the crisis,' he says. On the other hand, the country’s resilience is 'not surprising' given the steady growth displayed in recent decades which has not been marked by ‘bubbles growing and bursting,' he notes.
According to Leininger, if you pick the right projects, do your due diligence properly as a lender, 'you cannot do materially wrong in Poland.' Eurohypo’s own strategy underscores this conviction. When the financial crisis struck in earnest in 2009, Eurohypo pulled out of every market in CEE with the exception of Poland. 'We came to the conclusion last year that Poland is a core market for us. Not only is it the biggest but also the most stable market in the region with fewer problems than most people thought. I personally don’t regard it as an emerging market anymore.'
Leininger says he is 'cautiously optimistic' about prospects for Poland in 2010, noting that the caution is based on the limited number of deals taking place which banks are able and willing to finance. On a positive note, both sellers and buyers are getting more reasonable in terms of pricing 'so there is a convergence of expectations', says the banker. What will be difficult in the coming year is financing of developments as lending terms and conditions are tightened.
Overall, there are few clouds hanging over the Polish market, he says. 'There was a fear last year that if Germany went into a deep recession it would have a sharp impact on Poland. But if you look at the numbers now, the economies are doing better and therefore the effect on Poland is limited in my opinion. We’re seeing the first signs of spring in the economy, and this will definitely help the countries east of Germany to manage their problems.'
Session: Poland: Land of Opportunity?
Speaker: Markus Leininger, Head of Corporate Banking Northern, Central and Eastern Europe, Eurohypo
When: Tuesday 16 March, 15.00 - 16.00
Where: Auditorium A, Level 3, Palais des Festivals