Internet shopping set to grow fastest in CEE

The penetration of internet shopping is set to accelerate in Central and Eastern Europe, according to Mark Cliff, chief economist at ING Group. 'Long term, growth will be most rapid where penetration levels are now the lowest,' he said during his address Wednesday to the annual conference of the European branch of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) currently being held in Warsaw. 'This phenomenon will have profound effects on price levels and volumes of ordinary retailers,' he added.

The UK and the Netherlands currently lead in Europe in terms of the penetration of internet shopping. In the UK, Cliff sees the level of penetration growing further from 9% to 14% or 15% in the next five years. Cliff also expects consumer spending levels to converge in Europe, with consumption in the UK and Spain set to slow and an acceleration forecast for Germany and Italy.

The outlook for Germany is particularly favourable due not only to expected wage growth, but also to plans for deregulating shopping hours and easing of lending conditions. The outlook for consumer spending in Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic is also good, Cliff said. Prospects for Hungary are less favourable, he noted, pointing to that country's need for fiscal austerity with a view to filling the pension gap.

In terms of new stock, Cliff sees particularly strong growth in Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Spain and Italy. More moderate growth is forecast for the UK and the Netherlands.

The ICSC conference is being held until Friday, 27 April.