The UK is heading into uncharted territory with a very small chance that a majority government will be formed after the national elections on 7 May, attendees at INREV’s annual conference in Barcelona heard on Thursday.
The UK is heading into uncharted territory with a very small chance that a majority government will be formed after the national elections on 7 May, attendees at INREV’s annual conference in Barcelona heard on Thursday.
There is also a strong likelihood that Scottish separation will rear its head again after the elections, Alex Jeffrey, CEO of M&G Real Estate, said during a panel discussion entitled ‘Winds of change: real estate investing in the new geopolitical environment.’
‘Scottish separation would definitely mean a more vulnerable position for the UK. It also has potential implications for the rest of Europe,’ he added, pointing to Catalonia in Spain.
Jeffrey said he was less concerned about the threat of a Brexit from the European Union. Should prime minister David Cameron’s Conservative party win the election, he has promised to hold a referendum on UK membership of the European Union in 2017. There has been a marked change in sentiment of late, Jeffrey noted. ‘Opinion is shifting towards staying in the EU. The level of those in favour is decreasing, but investors should not ignore it,’ he added.
M&G’s own economists rate the chance of a Brexit at 10-20%, he said.
Commenting on the risk of a Brexit, Christian Delaire, CEO of Generali Real Estate, agreed that the probability that it will happen is low. ‘My personal view is that it won’t happen and that if it does, the impact will be minimal.’
