After a period of declining or flatlining consumer sales, prospects have now picked up for the European economy, but prospects for strong growth remain patchy, an expert panel agreed during a session at the annual ICSC conference in Milan.
Economic growth is starting to kick in, while the lower cost of debt is also helping to drive private consumption, according to Henrike Waldburg, head of investment management shopping centres at German fund manager Union Investment. 'Overall the consumption horizon looks good in Europe.'
Florencio Beccar, head of retail EMEA at CBRE Global Investors, noted that the situation is looking quite a bit better than just two years ago. 'We're seeing very strong retail sales growth in Italy and Spain and that was not the case 18 months ago. All of that is positive and has renewed our interest in these places.’
He said his optimism was based on what he was seeing in his own company's portfolio . 'That generates a different level of information...I think we are going to see nice period of expansion.'
He added that the ecommerce headwinds have also abated somewhat. ‘We’re in a beter point in the cycle to continue to invest. Retail has come through the cycle.’
Andrea Orlandi, the European head of Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), appeared somewhat more bearish on private consumption and general economic growth trends. 'I think it's contained and I don't see economic growth or consumption spiking anywhere.'
That said, there are pockets in Europe where prospects look brighter, he said, pointing to Sweden and Germany. 'Even Milan feels better than it did just 12 months ago. The restructuring of the industry is taking place, but where to invest really depends on investment targets.'
