There will be no winners in the case of a hard Brexit, keynote speaker Dr Amlan Roy has warned at the annual ICSC European Conference in Warsaw.
In a thought-provoking presentation which drilled down into the importance of demographics, Roy said that the UK actually had a good case for leaving the EU due to superior productivity and birth rates compared to European averages. However, the research associate for the LSE’s Systematic Risk Centre underlined that a hard, isolationist exit would only harm Britain and its neighbours.
Roy’s speech reminded delegates that the study of demographics is not actually about age but about the characteristics of human beings, and said that the retail and real estate industries needed to go into greater detail with their research to stay ahead of trends.
‘If we calculate that average height of people at this conference is 5 ft 9 inches, but only cater to people of that height, we’re going to miss out on a lot of customers,’ he said.
Many marketing professionals focus on millennials, Roy noted, but while they are the current drivers of change, they have a relatively inferior spending power.
Biggest spenders are over 60
‘The biggest spenders in the world at the moment are the 60-75 age group, who have the money and the time to spend it,’ he said. ‘And they’re also the biggest buyers of new real estate, either investing in second homes or putting down deposits for their kids, who can’t afford property.’
While the baby boomer generation bought real estate and had kids in their 20s, millennials are part of the sharing economy and are low on ownership goals. Meanwhile, most single person households are 50, 60, 70, 80 year-olds, post divorce or bereavement, Roy said. ‘You never cared about them, but they have all the purchasing power.’
The super-old, (80+), are actually the fastest growing age group in the world, and are the biggest challenge facing society today.
‘No country is the world has enough money to pay for its population’s pensions, health bills and long term care - not even Luxembourg, Lichtenstein, Switzerland or Kuwait,’ Roy told delegates from 40 different countries.
The answer to this problem lies in improving productivity, and also paying attention to supply-side issues, not just demand.
‘Demographically, every country, poor or rich, needs new infrastructure. This is positive for the real estate market and the shopping centre industry,’ Roy concluded.
