Retail developers need to review their strategies following the wave of shopping centre development in the recent past, according to Jaap Gillis, COO of Europe’s leading private real estate company Redevco. ‘The independent developer, in my opinion, is a dying profession. The successful ones who redevelop in the future will be integrated into construction and investment companies.’

Retail developers need to review their strategies following the wave of shopping centre development in the recent past, according to Jaap Gillis, COO of Europe’s leading private real estate company Redevco. ‘The independent developer, in my opinion, is a dying profession. The successful ones who redevelop in the future will be integrated into construction and investment companies.’

Gillis made the comment during a panel discussion entitled 2020 Vision: The Views of Other Shopping Centre Stakeholders at the European Research Seminar of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) in Amsterdam on Friday. Gillis pointed to his home country as an example. ‘In the Netherlands, the amount of shopping centre GLA increased to 15 mln m2 between 1945 and 1999 and by about the same amount again between 1999 and 2009. We have seen a similar trend in Russia. It’s impossible to maintain that level. This is not a sustainable model.’

In a response, fellow-panellist Glenn Aaronson, CEO of Multi Corporation, conceded that the development landscape was changing dramatically in Europe, but said developers can adapt. ‘We are no longer a developer, we are a redeveloper,’ he said. ‘The consumer doesn’t want a new place, just a better place. The enemy of good is not evil, but better.’

Aaronson said redevelopments were also sustainable. ‘The reason we didn’t have to redevelop in the past was that occupancy levels kept growing and yields kept falling. But redevelopment is the way of the future.’ He added that Turkey - where Multi is developing a string of new malls across the country - was an exception. ‘That’s a whole different world. But in Europe, it’s all about redevelopment.’

Gillis likewise sees a future for redevelopment and pointed to the Galleria Vittorio Emanuele in Milan as an example of an existing shopping centre that would still be a popular retail destination in 2020. Originally designed in 1861, the Galleria now boasts many luxury goods' shops, including Prada, Massimo Dutti, Gucci and Louis Vuitton, as well as fast food outlets such as McDonald’s.

Pointing to the growing role of ecommerce, demographic trends and the financial crisis, Gillis said the current market climate was ‘very complex’. ‘This is the most dynamic period for the industry that I’ve seen in my career.’

Prior to the panel, futurist Jesper Bo Jensen gave a sweeping overview of the new ‘zeitgeist’ and changes that retailers and retail property owners and developers will need to take into account in the coming decade such as the ‘silver-grey tsunami’ of the ageing population and the rising influence of ecommerce. ‘Etailing is growing by 10-15% a year,’ he pointed out. ‘The volume is not big and it’s coming from a small base, but it’s like China. It will get to a higher level pretty soon...The shopping centre of the future is the Iphone.’