Capital still available for core assets: CBRE

The main macro-economic effect of the US debt crisis will be heightened volatility, particularly in the stock markets, as investors readjust their growth expectations for the world's major economies, according to a new research report issued by CB Richard Ellis.

The report, which analyses the effect on commercial real estate of last week's events, including Standard & Poor's downgrade of America's credit rating, indicates that commercial real estate investors may react differently to current conditions depending on their risk profile. In particular, investors with higher risk tolerance will look for opportunities while more risk-averse investors may delay new transactions.

'Commercial real estate will not fare as poorly because it remains a preferred asset class, within well-diversified multi-asset institutional portfolios,' said Asieh Mansour, CBRE's head of Americas Research. 'Ultimately, real estate fundamentals change more slowly than property values or debt availability. However, should the decline in business and consumer confidence persist this will adversely affect the nascent recovery in property market fundamentals we have witnessed over the past year.'

CBRE is seeing early signs of a withdrawal of capital in the CMBS market, with spreads widening. However, there continues to be ample capital available for core deals and the report notes that lending rates should stay relatively low, albeit with loans conservatively underwritten with stricter covenants.

The report cautions that there will be less transparency on pricing metrics for real estate assets as valuation metrics may become more difficult to underwrite. Reduced investor confidence will increase demand for core assets in primary markets. Assets further out on the risk spectrum - secondary markets, peripheral locations, value-add plays - will be less desirable until economic uncertainty is reduced.