Polish logistics and warehousing face both positive and negative influences, according to a logistics expert as it looks ahead to 2023.
AXI Immo, an adviser based in Poland, said ‘the breaking point’ for the sector turned out to be Russia's aggression against Ukraine at the end of Q1 2022, which significantly changed the perception of the entire market in the first weeks of the war.
Additionally, tenants and developers looked for ways to optimize energy costs throughout the year.
Renata Osiecka, managing partner, said: ‘With the state of war in Ukraine unchanged, we expect that capital from Europe and the United States will continue to be the leading player in the Polish investment market.’
‘The large supply of projects to be delivered in 2023 may prompt more opportunistic decisions by investors outside the continent.’
She added: ‘The market will see a growing difference in the valuation of ESG-compliant warehouse assets, which will translate into an increased number of upgrades of older facilities in the medium to long term.'
The advisor said the logistics and industrial market was stable and had grown ‘dynamically’ despite a pandemic, high inflation, rising prices for materials and contractors, and consequently, an increase in starting rental rates for the warehouse sector in 2022.
Anna Glowacz, head of industrial, forecasted: ‘The persistently high inflation rate, with the expected downturn in the economy and the spectre of recession, dictates that within the framework of forecasts for 2023 we should adopt full conservatism and point to a lower dynamics of tenant activity than before.’
‘An additional factor remains the steadily increasing starting rental rates, which have risen between 20% and 30% over the past several months, depending on the location.’
‘Despite the difficulties in attracting truck drivers, the logistics industry should maintain its leading position in the demand structure. Further resolution of the war in Ukraine will also be of great importance for the warehouse market. One of the realistic scenarios is that Poland will become the European logistics and industrial base for reconstructing Ukraine.’
