Arms race for mega airport hubs could leave Europe stranded

The ‘arms race’ between emerging cities to build mega airports and ‘aerotropolises’ could leave established destinations in the West stranded.

Dubai, Doha and Istanbul are spending billions of euros to become hubs for an annual deluge of 120 million passengers or more, Greg Lindsay, urbanist, author and journalist told the ULI trends conference held at Siemens’ futuristic Crystal centre at London’s Docklands on Wednesday.

Dubai’s over-construction may look like madness but thanks to state-controlled Emirates Airlines, it is a seamless machine for flying people in and out, he noted. ‘The Chinese use Dubai as a crossroads to Africa and already have more people in Nigeria than the British did at the height of their colonial rule.’

Asian giants
China, Korea and India are also getting into the race to cater to a massive surge in air travel on the back of rising GDP. The Chinese are also active outside their own country and are spending billions to build an aerotropolis near Minsk in Belarus, Lindsay pointed out. ‘That gives them a foothold inside the European Union - connectivity is the new currency.’

If the 20th century was the era of nations, the 21st century is the era of cities, Lindsay said. In the next 15 to 20 years, 100 cities in the world will account for 35% of GDP. ‘If you’re not part of the City 600, you’re not going anyway. Size matters but network effects matter more.’

Singapore of the west?
London is billing itself as the Singapore of the west, but the question is whether is whether the UK government will display the political courage to get on with it, Ross Baker, director of strategy at Heathrow Airport, said during a panel discussion. ‘London has the potential to become the capital of the BRIC countries,’ he said, pointing to the advantages of its time zone, single language and legal system. ‘The challenge is whether we do.’

While the emerging countries are spending billions to gear up for the era of cities in the 21st century, the UK and Western Europe face a significant backlog in infrastructure investment, Robert Hardy, executive director infrastructure investment group at JP Morgan Asset Management said. International capital is coming into London in particular and there is no lack of money. But the interests of pension funds are not necessarily aligned with infrastructural needs, particularly the development of greenfield sites. Greenfield developments typically have long lead times, he added. ‘It’s a difficult proposition when there are no returns for five to 10 years.’

There’s too much red tape in the UK and procurement processes are too long, according to Katie Kopec, head of development and consulting at Jones Lang LaSalle. ‘There’s no long-term thinking and too many fragmented voices.'

For more on development schemes in European cities, see City Leaders